Social goals with real stakes

Your friends bet on you. Prove them right.

Friends back you or doubt you with small stakes, AI checks your proof, and the doubters' pot goes to you or your charity.

"I quit every goal I tell nobody about. Tell nine friends who put money on it? Different story."

Kemi Adebayo, Lagos9 friends in Lagos, London and Toronto

Run a half marathon by 30 November

Week 3 of 10Doubters: Femi, Amaka, Marcus

What will you do?

Your first name The goal Deadline

How will you prove it?

Stakes and rules

What's at stake

Real-money stakes on yourself can count as gambling in some places. That is why charity pot and points are the defaults.

Your own stake on yourself

$25

Friends can stake

If you finish

If you miss

Missed check-ins allowed

Who's in so far

Run a half marathon

Friends

Week 3 check-in

Use my own screenshot

Checking proof

Week 6, Wednesday

I'm slipping.

Two runs missed. Work trip to Abuja. The doubters noticed.

Odds this week

Share of the pot backing Kemi, updated with every stake and check-in

Get back on track

Kemi did it.

Lagos City Half, 29 November. 2:14:08. Verified by AI and 4 friends.

Your balance$48.20

kemi.a@mail.example

Signed in with your emailNo seed phrase, no browser extension. Your phone's passkey protects the wallet.
Always shown in dollarsAdd with a card or bank transfer in naira, pounds or Canadian dollars. We convert for you.
Stakes held in escrowNobody, including us, can touch a pot until the goal is verified.

Advanced (demo)
Network: Base. Asset: USDC. Smart wallet 0x7a3F...c91E. You can export it to any wallet at any time.

Kemi

Lagos. Backed by 9 friends in 3 cities.

3 of 4 won

Friends now give you better odds when you start a new goal. Next season starts 1 January.

History

Leaderboard among friends

A world where people bet on each other to win.

Accountability works best when it is social and a little bit fun. In three years, Odds On Me is how friends, teams and families back each other's goals across cities and borders, with every pot verified and every win public.

71%goals finished with friends watching (target)

$2.4Msent to charities from doubters' pots (target)

Year 1: friends

Running, saving, studying and quitting goals. Charity and points pots. AI proof checks.

Year 2: teams and families

Company step challenges, study groups, diaspora families backing a cousin's exam from three continents.

Year 3: sponsors

Brands and NGOs top up pots for goals they care about, like girls finishing school or first-time runners in Lagos and Nairobi.

Odds On Me blueprint

The mission

A world where people bet on each other to win. Odds On Me turns accountability into a social game: friends back or doubt your goal with small stakes, AI verifies your proof, and the pot moves only when the truth is in.

Why people can't resist it

Loss aversion plus pride: your own stake on the line, and a named friend betting against you, is far stronger than any reminder app.

Live social odds: a moving bar that friends can push either way creates drama, comments and comebacks every week.

Spectator fun: backers get a reason to check in, cheer and argue, which keeps the whole group coming back.

How it works for real

Goal setup: a frontier LLM (Claude or GPT via OpenRouter) turns "half marathon by 30 Nov" into a weekly plan with measurable check-ins and a proof spec.

Proof check: a vision model (Gemini Flash or GPT vision) reads tracker screenshots and photos into structured data. Rules engine checks distance, dates and route continuity. Image forensics flags edits and reused images (perceptual hash against past uploads).

Confidence below 80% asks two friends to vouch. Disputes go to a short vote among people who staked nothing.

Money rails: USDC on Base held in a simple escrow contract per goal. Smart wallets with email login (passkeys) so nobody sees a seed phrase. Card and bank on-ramps per country.

x402 for per-request payments: each AI verification call is paid from the goal's fee pool, so verification cost is metered and transparent.

Settlement: contract pays out by the chosen rule (winner, charity address, or refunds), and emits the receipt you see in the app.

Cost per use

Plan generation

$0.01

Each proof check (vision + rules)

$0.004

Base gas per stake or payout

under $0.01

10-week goal, 12 check-ins, 9 friends

about $0.20

Free: points mode and charity pots, 1 active goal. Plus ($3.99 a month): unlimited goals, coach replanning, private groups. Platform fee: 3% of cash pots where those are legal, 0% on charity pots.

Growth loop

Every goal needs backers, so every new user invites 5 to 10 friends to stake. Backers watching a friend win want to try their own goal. Doubters who lose usually want a rematch with their own goal.

Risks and guardrails

Gambling law: points and charity pot are default. Cash pots only after age and location checks, and switched off where restricted.

Health and safety: no weight-loss deadlines that push unsafe rates, no fasting or extreme goals, injury pause that freezes the pot.

Fraud: forensics on uploads, friend vouching, stake caps, cool-off before payouts.

Kindness: comments filtered for bullying. Doubters bet against the goal, never insult the person.

Money: escrow per goal, clear refund rules, stakes capped at $50 per person.

MVP build order

Goal setup, invite link and points mode only (no money yet).

Weekly check-ins with Gemini Flash screenshot reading and friend vouching.

Live odds bar, comments and hype buttons.

Smart wallet with email login and charity pot escrow on Base testnet, then mainnet with 2 partner charities.